Speaking at the Manitoba Swine Seminar in Winnipeg, Michael Fitzgerald, Professional Ag Marketing’s risk manager, told producers that U.S. livestock and grain markets continue to support profitability, but those margins depend on tight supply balances and uncertain demand.
Fitzgerald brings more than 15 years of industry experience and a strong family-farming background to his work. Drawing on his time with Cargill and JBS, along with deep knowledge of USDA reporting, he helps producers manage risk and structure operations from his home base in Mechanicsville, Iowa.
He opened with a straightforward disclaimer. Any trading decisions remain the responsibility of producers. His role, he said, is to explain what the numbers show and where the risks sit.
With limited time to cover U.S. hogs, cattle, poultry, and corn, Fitzgerald focused on USDA supply-and-demand reports. The key figure, he said, sits at the end of the balance sheet: ending stocks.
Corn leads the discussion. USDA projects the tightest ending corn stocks in about 26 years. “That’s a good place to be,” Fitzgerald said. Tight corn supplies explain why hog margins stayed positive longer than many expected.
U.S. pork production now sits just below record levels at roughly 28.2 billion pounds. Fitzgerald said the increase does not come from herd expansion. The sow herd continues to decline. Productivity gains and heavier carcass weights drive output, supported by lower feed costs.
Carcass weights reached record highs again in late 2024 and 2025, in some cases three to five pounds heavier than previous records. Lower corn prices encourage producers to keep feeding weight. “The math tells you to do it,” Fitzgerald said.
Imports into the U.S. remain steady at about four percent of total production. The U.S. remains a net pork exporter. Canada supplies roughly two-thirds of imported pork, largely specific cuts such as bellies. Fitzgerald noted that small volumes also arrive from countries dealing with African swine fever. “That still surprises me,” he said.
On the demand side, about 75 percent of U.S. pork stays in the domestic market. Exports account for the rest. USDA forecasts indicate domestic pork consumption will rise in 2026 to record levels. Fitzgerald expressed caution. U.S. per-capita pork consumption peaked decades ago and has remained flat or declined since 2000. “We haven’t moved the needle,” he said.
USDA expects high beef prices to eventually push consumers toward pork. Fitzgerald said that the shift remains unproven. “I hope it happens,” he said.
Export demand remains solid, led by Mexico. Fitzgerald described Mexico as the backbone of U.S. pork exports. Proximity, fresh-product logistics, and labour efficiencies support that relationship. Mexican hog inventories declined in recent years, pushing prices higher and increasing reliance on imports.
Any disruption in Mexican demand, even a short-term one, would quickly hit hog prices. Fitzgerald said that risk remains central as trade discussions continue. “It would cause a bottleneck,” he said.
Japan, South Korea, and other Asian markets remain important, especially as African swine fever reshapes global trade. Fitzgerald said disease pressure in Europe may open opportunities for North American exporters, particularly for higher-value cuts such as loins and ribs.
Global hog prices continue to rise. The U.S. now shows one of the strongest year-over-year gains. Mexican hog prices exceed U.S. prices by a wide margin, reinforcing the importance of that trade relationship.
Fitzgerald said the U.S. cattle sector faces its tightest conditions in decades. The national herd stands at its smallest level in 75 years. Drought, high feed costs, and liquidation reduced supplies. Beef prices remain high and are unlikely to fall soon. “Expensive beef is not going away,” he said.
Poultry tells a different story. Production continues to expand modestly. Per-capita poultry consumption increased steadily over the past two decades, while pork stayed flat and beef declined. “That’s the frustrating part,” Fitzgerald said.
Feed costs remain critical to margins. Record U.S. corn acreage and yields pushed projected ending stocks to about 2.3 billion bushels. Fitzgerald said two billion bushels marks the line between comfort and concern. Above that level, buyers stay patient. Below it, prices respond quickly.
Looking ahead, forward hog margins approach $40 per head. Fitzgerald said that level will eventually encourage expansion, though high construction costs slow investment. “This cycle is different,” he said.
He closed by highlighting ongoing risks: African swine fever, trade friction with Mexico, public perception of animal disease, and political uncertainty. “The margins look good,” Fitzgerald said. “The risks are still there.” •
— By Harry Siemens