Speaking at the annual general meeting of Manitoba Pork in Winnipeg recently, Todd Thurman delivered a clear and thought-provoking message: the global pork industry is entering a fundamentally different era, and producers must begin preparing now.
Thurman, founder and CEO of Swine Insights International, based in Weatherford, Texas, brought more than 25 years of global experience to the stage. Having worked in 17 countries and with many of the world’s largest pork producers, he focused less on short-term market swings and more on long-term structural change.
He opened with a powerful shift in perspective, referencing the iconic “Blue Marble” image taken during the Apollo 17 mission. That image changed how people viewed Earth. Thurman said the pork industry now needs a similar shift in how it views its future.
“For most of our careers, what we’ve experienced has felt normal,” Thurman said. “But historically, it’s not.”
He explained that agriculture has operated in a unique period defined by rapid population growth, expanding global trade, and rising incomes. Those forces drove strong demand for protein, especially pork, and created decades of opportunity.
But that environment is changing.
Thurman pointed to the legacy of Paul Ehrlich, whose predictions of mass starvation were proven wrong by the Green Revolution. Agriculture rose to the challenge and fed a growing world. Today, Thurman said, the industry faces a different challenge—not scarcity, but slowing growth.
Global fertility rates continue to fall. Many countries are now below replacement levels, meaning populations will eventually decline. At the same time, populations are aging rapidly, especially in key markets.
China remains the clearest example.
Thurman noted China’s population has already peaked and is beginning to decline. At the same time, its population is aging quickly, with a growing share of consumers over 60. That shift has major implications for pork demand.
“Older consumers eat less,” he said. “And that affects total demand.”
China has been a cornerstone of global pork demand, but Thurman said that story is changing. Growth has slowed, and long-term projections suggest declining consumption. At the same time, China continues to improve its own production efficiency, moving closer to self-sufficiency.
For exporting regions like Canada, this raises serious questions.
“Markets are going to shift,” Thurman said. “And in some cases, demand is going to decline.”
He emphasized that much of the growth in global food demand over the past decades—nearly 70 percent—was simply due to population growth. As that driver weakens, the industry must adjust.
Emerging regions, particularly in Africa, will see strong population growth and represent future opportunities. However, those markets currently account for a very small share of global pork consumption and present cultural and economic challenges.
“It’s not a direct replacement,” Thurman said. “We’re not just swapping one market for another.”
He also addressed the role of immigration in countries like Canada and the United States. Population growth in these regions depends heavily on migration. Any slowdown in immigration could accelerate demographic challenges, including labour shortages and slower economic growth.
That has direct implications for agriculture.
“Our entire economic system assumes a growing workforce supporting an aging population,” Thurman said. “There’s no clear solution if that changes.”
Despite the challenges, Thurman remains optimistic about North America’s position. He pointed to strong production efficiency, abundant natural resources, and a culture of innovation as key advantages.
But he stressed the need for a shift in thinking.
“We have to move from quantity to quality,” he said. “We’ve spent decades focused on producing more. Now we need to focus on producing better.”
That includes strengthening domestic demand, maintaining export relationships, and better understanding changing consumer demographics—especially the growing senior population, which is often overlooked in marketing and product development.
Trade will remain critical.
For a province like Manitoba, where the vast majority of pork production depends on export markets, maintaining stable and open trade relationships is essential.
“We cannot take trade for granted,” Thurman said. “It’s our biggest advantage.”
He closed by encouraging producers and industry leaders to think further ahead than ever before.
“We’re very good at short-term planning in agriculture,” he said. “But we need to get better at thinking 10, 20 years out. These changes are coming whether we prepare for them or not.”
Thurman’s message at the Manitoba Pork AGM was not about an immediate crisis, but about long-term awareness. The industry has solved enormous challenges before. The next one, he said, will require the same level of focus, innovation, and willingness to adapt.
“The future is going to look different,” he said. “The sooner we recognize that, the better positioned we’ll be.” •
— By Harry Siemens