The strong worldwide demand for pork continues to push prices higher and Canadian pork producers should expect strong prices for the next two years, a market analyst told the Banff Pork Seminar.
“Do the math, Canadians ate more pork last year than they did in the past. When you see production up three percent and hog prices up 11 percent there is only one way to explain that and that is demand. Demand has improved and it is the same story in the US,” said Brett Stuart, president of Global AgriTrends.
In Canada, in 2025, hog slaughter was up three percent, production up 3.1 percent, sow slaughter up 5.1 percent, hog prices up 11.1 percent, imports down 13.1 percent and exports up.0.5 percent.
“You can’t deny things are better. By and large consumers are paying more for pork. That is good news in the hog sector. More pork and higher prices,” said Stuart, during a global pork update at the conference.
There was no single reason for the strong demand and prices. Despite the uncertainty with US tariffs and the political instability under US president Donald Trump, the US continues to be one of Canada’s largest trading partners. In 2025, Canada exported 6.7 million hogs to the United States, including four million isowean pigs. In addition, Canada exports 342,000 tonnes of pork as well as cattle, beef and poultry. The US exports meat and livestock to Canada, but mainly in eastern Canada.
“Trade is essential on both sides of the border.”
A year ago pork producers were worried how Trump’s projected 35 percent tariff would impact the industry, but it has largely not been a factor because most of the trade is covered under the Canada-United States-Mexico Free Trade Agreement and crosses the border tariff free. With CUSMA up for renegotiation this year, Stuart is not sure what future trade will look like.
“It is still unclear how this will roll out. It is up for negotiations with one of the most unpredictable politicians we have had.”
Also uncertain is how the new V-Cool, or voluntary country of origin labelling will impact Canadian meat on US grocery store shelves. M-Cool, the mandatory country of origin labelling, has returned after being ruled illegal. To be labelled with the V-Cool stamp, retailers must have proof the animals were born, raised and slaughtered in the US, not easy with 6.5 million pigs being imported from Canada. With the US celebrating its 250 anniversary in 2026, many retailers will want to add a red, white and blue sticker on the meat, but it will come at an added cost.
One of Canada’s biggest success stories was its increased export to Japan. The final numbers have not come in, but it looks like Japan will be Canada’s largest pork export market, bumping the United States from top spot. That market is expected to increase another 2.1 percent in 2026 to about 350,000 tonnes of pork.
“It speaks to your resilience. This story in Japan for Canada is incredible. Japan is a fantastic pork market. It is a tough market, but it is a lucrative market. To take that kind of market share is incredible,” he said.
“You have adopted industry standards that have probably been difficult for some of you to accept. That matters in Japan. That is a huge victory for Canada.”
Part of that growth came at the expense of American pork, which lost 20 percent of Japan’s market share. Brazil increased its market share to 10 percent, filling the frozen, low-quality, low-value pork manufacturing market.
One of the US’s largest growth markets is Mexico. Almost 60 percent of US hams go into Mexico as bone-in and chilled. Every day semi trailers haul the meat across the border and few countries, including Mexico can compete with the low-cost carcasses.

Mexico has launched an investigation into dumping, but Stuart is unclear what impact the investigation will have.
“We are very co-dependent with Mexico.”
Despite the high prices and strong demand, Stuart doesn’t expect to see a massive expansion of the hog industry. Adjusted for inflation, hog prices are not that strong and profits are due to cheap feed prices.
“The hog industry for the past 20 years has basically been on a treadmill. Each year it is raised one degree and turned up a little faster. What do we do to be more productive? We go from 15 pigs a year to 30. We just get more and more efficient and run faster on that treadmill and make the exact amount of money. Demand is better than it was, but the real driver of these profits is we have real affordable feed right now.”
Stuart told producers not to expect low crop prices to continue, but to look at them as a temporary gift.
“People are making money globally in meat and livestock because of those low grain prices.”
Around the world, traditional pork markets are shifting. Brazil continues to be an “absolute powerhouse” exporting not just pork, but cattle, grain and chicken because of its devalued currency.
The Philippines market has continued to grow, importing pork from around the world, but in 2025, 40 percent was from Brazil.
“They are raging carnivores. They just love meat and they love pork.”
The discovery of African Swine Fever in a small region of Spain sent shockwaves around the world. Spain is one of the largest hog exports in Europe and the second largest exporter in the world. Luckily, just weeks before 27 wild boars were confirmed to have ASF, the government finalized regionalization deals with several countries, including China. These agreements allow exports to continue from the rest of the country.
“Eighty-five percent of export markets are still open. This is how you survive ASF outbreaks.”
High beef prices have generally signalled a move by consumers to pork, but Stuart said he has not seen any evidence of people eating less beef. Retailers are not worried about the high beef prices causing problems, but running out of beef supply.
“Beef demand is absolutely phenomenal. People will pay up for it. People are buying it.”
For retailers, pork is their profit driver. Beef steak prices are high, but they can make money from selling pork.
“We will see two more years of this massive pork beef spread. Pork has an exceptional opportunity to go compete with beef. We may see some better demand from pork because of beef prices.” •
— By Mary MacArthur