Canadian agriculture closed 2025 under pressure from global uncertainty, shifting trade policies, and political risk that reached far beyond the farm gate. Many producers hoped those pressures would ease. They did not.
A year ago, Manitoba Pork General Manager Cam Dahl warned that global instability would disrupt markets. He hoped events would prove him wrong. They did not. Trade uncertainty followed Canadian farmers throughout 2025 and now sets the tone for 2026.
The United States remains focused on an “America First” approach. That shift pulls U.S. policy away from free and open trade and toward domestic protection. Canadian agriculture felt the change quickly. Short-term tariffs appeared, then eased, mainly because the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement still stands. But that protection now faces a critical test.
CUSMA comes up for review before the end of 2026. That review matters more than any other policy file facing Canadian agriculture. About 90 percent of Canadian farmers depend on international markets. The review outcome will determine whether the agreement extends through 2032, shifts to annual reviews, or ends altogether. Each option carries consequences for farm finances, investment confidence, and long-term viability.
“The outcome will determine the fiscal sustainability of many farms,” Dahl said.
Tariffs remain an obvious risk, but they no longer stand alone. Protection now takes many forms. Country-of-origin labelling threatens to re-emerge in the U.S. Individual state policies, such as California’s Proposition 12, continue to fracture the North American market. Those measures restrict trade without using tariffs, but they deliver the same result.
Other regions follow similar paths. China targeted agricultural commodities in response to Canadian tariffs on electric vehicles. The European Union continues to block Canadian food exports through non-tariff barriers. These actions raise costs, limit access, and inject uncertainty into long-term planning.
Trade instability costs money. It raises financing costs, delays investment, and forces producers and processors to manage risk rather than pursue growth. That reality will not disappear in 2026. In fact, uncertainty may increase as the CUSMA review approaches.
Securing North American market access must rank as a top policy priority in 2026. Governments also need tools to offset the cost of uncertainty and accelerate trade diversification. Agriculture cannot carry this burden alone.
Food and agriculture must sit at every Canadian negotiating table in 2026. Policymakers need constant reminders that food and beverage processing stands as Canada’s largest manufacturing sector. The industry records about $175 billion in sales and accounts for more than 20 percent of total manufacturing output. Meat products lead this sector in Manitoba and Canada.
“If agriculture gets left behind, every region pays the price,” Dahl said.
Manitoba’s hog sector enters 2026 with notable strengths. Producers here lead the world in disease prevention and management. The sector works together across the entire value chain. That cooperation often requires short-term sacrifice for long-term gain. Few regions match that level of coordination.
Manitoba’s pork producers, processors, veterinarians, transporters, and regulators share responsibility for animal health. That collaboration protects the entire sector. It also strengthens Canada’s reputation as a reliable supplier.
Disease prevention remains paramount in 2026. Producers continue efforts to prevent and manage Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome and Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus. They also work closely with Manitoba’s Office of the Chief Veterinarian to keep foreign animal diseases out of the province. African Swine Fever and Foot and Mouth Disease remain constant threats.
“Collaboration makes the difference,” Dahl said.
The economic picture brought good news in 2025. Hog producers across the sector posted profits. Strong global pork demand, competitive pricing compared to beef, disease pressure in other regions, and reasonable feed costs all supported margins. Those conditions should carry into the first half of 2026.
The second half of the year depends on trade. Political decisions, not markets, may set the direction.
Given current profitability, 2026 should offer a chance for renewal and growth. Producers want to reinvest, upgrade barns, and plan for the next generation. Uncertainty makes that difficult. Financing barns with 25-year lifespans becomes harder when market access lacks clarity.
Manitoba’s Economic Development Plan recognizes this challenge. The province acknowledges the need to reduce reliance on U.S. trade and improve investment certainty. In 2026, government and industry must work together to share risk and support renewal.
Looking ahead, 2026 may resemble 2025 in many ways. Trade uncertainty will remain. Market fundamentals will remain strong. Profitability should continue, driven by demand and manageable costs. The key question will linger at year’s end.
Did political risk outweigh market opportunity?
That answer will shape Canadian agriculture far beyond 2026. •
— By Harry Siemens