As Manitoba’s pork industry works toward the July 1, 2029 deadline for group sow housing, Manitoba Pork General Manager Cam Dahl believes the biggest story will not be the housing conversion itself, but the continued growth of the province’s hog sector.
“The industry in Manitoba is poised for growth, irrespective of the July 2029 deadline,” Dahl said. “I expect that in 2030 we will be raising and processing more animals in Manitoba.”
He said the group housing requirement is influencing the timing of investments rather than changing the industry’s long-term direction. Some producers are choosing to expand their operations while renovating existing barns to meet the new standards.
Although production is expected to increase, Dahl is less certain about the number of producers who will remain in the business.
“I don’t know the answer to that,” he said. “Almost every sector of agriculture is experiencing growth in production and increased productivity, but I don’t know of any sector that’s gaining farmers.”
Like other agricultural industries, pork production continues to experience consolidation. However, Dahl believes that trend is driven by broader economic realities rather than the group housing deadline itself.
“There may be cases where operators choose to exit the industry rather than convert, but that’s more about timing than an overall driver of consolidation,” he said. “Those producers likely would have exited a year or two later anyway.”
Rather than focusing solely on farm numbers, Dahl believes attention should also be given to employment.
“Hog production and processing support more than 22,000 direct and indirect jobs in Manitoba,” he said. “By 2030, I’m confident the industry will be supporting significantly more jobs than it does today. That’s good for both rural and urban communities.”
He also expects significant investment in both production and processing over the next five years.
“We’re going to see substantial investment,” Dahl said. “The group housing requirement affects the timing of some projects, but it doesn’t change the long-term growth potential.”
On-farm productivity should remain strong after the transition, he added.
“Research shows productivity in well-managed group sow housing operations is equal to, or even better than, traditional stall systems,” Dahl said.
He expects producers will place greater emphasis on selecting genetics with desirable social behaviour while adapting management practices to maximize performance in group housing.
Dahl also sees potential marketing advantages as consumer expectations continue evolving.
“The influence of consumer expectations on agriculture is only going to grow,” he said.
He pointed to the growing scrutiny of farming practices in North America, including discussions surrounding pesticides, seed oils and environmental stewardship.
“Agriculture needs to pay attention to those questions before they become movements,” Dahl said. “We need to be transparent about animal care and environmental stewardship. Fortunately, agriculture has a good story to tell, and we shouldn’t be shy about telling it.”
Looking toward 2030, Dahl expects today’s major challenges to remain largely unchanged.
“Disease, labour, market access, environmental regulations, animal welfare and antimicrobial use will all continue to be priorities,” he said.
He also believes demographic changes will eventually influence global demand.
“One issue that will become more prominent by 2030 is a shrinking world population. I don’t expect it to significantly affect pork demand by then, but the shift will become more evident.”
If Manitoba’s pork industry continues on its current path, Dahl hopes to see a sector that is growing, optimistic and creating opportunities across the province.
“I want Manitoba to become not just one of Canada’s leading pork producers, but the top hog and pork-producing province in the country,” he said. “I also want us to remain a North American leader in disease prevention, productivity and innovation while supporting more jobs and stronger communities throughout Manitoba.” •
— By Harry Siemens