African Swine Fever continues to reshape global pork markets, not through sudden windfalls, but through gradual shifts in supply, trade routes, and competitive positioning. Paul Marchand, Senior Risk Management Analyst with h@ms Marketing Services, says ASF’s spread in Europe—especially its entrenched presence in wild boar—forces producers and exporters to rethink expectations rather than chase quick gains.
Marchand says reportable diseases like ASF move markets fast because borders react immediately. “When borders close, supply changes overnight,” he said. “That’s when markets adjust quickly.”
Spain now sits at the centre of Europe’s latest ASF challenge. Marchand says the disease runs rampant in several regions despite strong containment efforts. “It’s having a devastating effect on Spanish pork producers,” he said. “They’re doing their best, but the pressure is real.”
Spain replaced Germany as the European Union’s top pork producer after Germany’s ASF outbreak reduced its herd. Marchand expects Spain to face similar structural changes. “Germany never returned to its previous production levels,” he said. “Spain likely won’t either.”
He expects large sow herd liquidations as producers respond to disease pressure and uncertainty. Still, Marchand warns against assuming new export opportunities will automatically open for Canada or the United States. “I don’t expect a massive influx of pork exports into Spain,” he said. “That’s probably not realistic.”
Instead, Marchand points to back fill opportunities in markets Spain once served. “That’s where the real shift happens,” he said. “Not Spain itself, but the customers Spain used to supply.”
China remains a key buyer of Spanish pork, but Marchand notes weak recent demand from the United States. At the same time, Brazil continues to expand its reach across Southeast Asia. “Brazil makes strong inroads there,” he said. “Their trade relationship with China runs smoother.”
Marchand says Brazil likely captures much of the displaced trade rather than North American exporters. “That back fill likely goes to Brazil, not Canada or the U.S.,” he said. “That’s how ASF reshapes markets.”

He also dismisses the idea that ASF in Spain opens doors inside the European Union. “High regulation blocks access,” he said. “That’s one of the main barriers.”
While Europe wrestles with ASF, North American hog markets remain steady. Marchand describes ASF risk in Canada and the United States as persistent but unchanged. “The risk always exists,” he said. “Now it becomes a probability question.”
Markets show little concern today. Marchand credits existing monitoring and mitigation strategies. “They work,” he said. “People I work with don’t show panic.”
Looking back at 2025, Marchand describes it as a strong year for hog producers. “Margins looked good,” he said. “Feed and input costs stayed relatively low, and hog prices stayed high.”
Canadian prices followed U.S. base prices after exchange and conversion. Marchand highlights a historic milestone. “Every single marketing month in 2025 averaged over $200 per CKG,” he said. “That never happened before.”
He expects 2026 to continue along a similar path, subject to conditions. “The outlook stays optimistic,” he said. “But you have to qualify that.”
Marchand expects stable fundamentals if markets avoid external shocks. “Seasonality still applies,” he said. “But nothing drastic changed.”
Production data sends mixed signals. Analysts disagree on whether recent hogs-and-pigs reports lean bullish or bearish. Marchand takes a cautious stance. “I focus on risk,” he said. “I watch headwinds.”
He still sees room for optimism. “If input costs stay low, 2026 looks good,” he said.
Early signals from U.S. supply data suggest strong corn production. Marchand says that matters. “More corn relieves pressure on feed costs,” he said.
Even with slight reductions in hog numbers, productivity gains offset the decline in supply. “Efficiency fills the gap,” he said.
Marchand expects solid margins again, though he avoids record predictions. “Every marketing year differs,” he said.
Risk management remains critical. Marchand urges producers not to ignore strong forward pricing. “Good opportunities still exist,” he said.
Recent forward contracts reached near-record levels. “We saw $228.69 per CKG for 39 weeks,” he said. “Only two years beat that—2022 and 2025.”
He challenges producers to rethink expectations. “That’s not a bad price,” he said. “Memory works against us.”
Marchand encourages discussion at the barn level. “Anything above $225 deserves attention,” he said.
He does not promise runaway prices. “The futures trade sideways,” he said. “Summer contracts pulled back.”
Still, he expects higher seasonal peaks. “$250 to $260 remains likely,” he said.
Marchand frames the decision clearly. “You don’t need to hit the top,” he said. “You need to lock in margin.”
He sees 2026 shaping up much like recent strong years. “Prices correct,” he said. “But they hold.”
ASF will not rewrite the market overnight. Marchand says it shifts flows, competitors, and expectations instead. “That’s how disease moves markets,” he said. •
— By Harry Siemens