The U.S. government reopened on November 13, 2025, ending the longest shutdown in American history at 43 days. President Trump signed a continuing resolution that funds most agencies through January 30, 2026, while the USDA secured full-year funding through September 2026. The political drama will continue after eight Democrats crossed the aisle to end the stalemate, but agriculture immediately turned its focus to the return of USDA data.
For hog producers, the blackout created immediate pressure. Paul Marchand, Senior Risk Management Analyst with h@ms Marketing Services, says the shutdown left the industry working without its usual foundation. “This shutdown created a blind spot. We depend on USDA data to assess exports, supply, and demand,” he said. “Without it, you’re flying partly by feel.”
The government shut down most USDA agencies central to market analysis. Producers normally watch the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for Commitments of Traders data, the Foreign Agricultural Service for weekly and monthly exports, the Economic Research Service for domestic market indicators, the National Agricultural Statistics Service for the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, and the World Agricultural Outlook Board for WASDE. All went silent for six weeks.
Only the Agricultural Marketing Service continued operating as an essential service. AMS maintained Mandatory Price Reporting, but without the usual verification from other branches, even that information came with limitations.
Marchand says the lack of reliable numbers increased hesitation in trading. “Markets like consistency,” he explains. “Without accurate reporting, you get hesitation and added volatility.” Slaughter estimates and implied weights remained available, but analysts could not confirm patterns or measure export strength with confidence.
With the government now open, Marchand stresses that the system cannot return to normal instantly. Thousands of USDA employees went on leave, and programs requiring daily or weekly data must rebuild from the ground up. “It’s not like flipping a switch. Agencies need time to restart their systems and validate the missing data,” he said.
Most industry watchers expect irregular releases for several weeks. Reports from FAS, ERS, NASS, and WAOB may take 30 to 90 days to stabilize fully. The big uncertainty is how the USDA will handle the backlog. After the 2019 shutdown, USDA combined several weeks of FAS export data into one condensed summary, eliminating valuable detail. Marchand says no one knows yet when things will return to normal.
Canadian producers also rely heavily on U.S. numbers. Weekly export updates, WASDE reports, and hog inventory data underpin cross-border risk management and marketing decisions. The shutdown removed that visibility, forcing producers to operate with greater uncertainty. The reopening offers relief, but full clarity remains weeks away.
In his November 19 update, Marchand noted that lean hog futures opened the day sharply higher. New-year contracts through May gained more than USD $2 per hundredweight at the open, and contracts from December 2025 to October 2026 moved more than USD $1 higher. He cautions against reading too much into that early strength. “There’s no fundamental reason for the move,” he said. “The market has been choppy—up one day and down the next.”
Additional hog supplies appear to be entering U.S. markets ahead of Thanksgiving production slowdowns. Seasonal weight increases add to that supply pressure. The early futures rally lifted forward contract values, but hedging signals remain negative, sitting well below the cash highs seen earlier in 2025. Marchand says producers should keep expectations grounded until consistent data returns.
Marchand also highlights a recent tariff shift from the Trump administration. Several reciprocal tariffs got removed from food items the U.S. does not produce in significant quantities, including coffee, tea, tropical fruits, cocoa, and spices. Beef was also included, despite high domestic production. Brazil’s tariff dropped from 50 percent to 40 percent. Marchand believes the move reflects political pressure tied to high beef prices. He expects limited impact. “The U.S. would need a massive influx of imported beef to move prices,” he said. “That’s unlikely to happen.”
The reopening of the U.S. government marks an important step for agriculture. USDA data will resume, but not immediately at full strength. Marchand says producers can at least take comfort knowing the information flow is turning back on. The transition may stretch into early 2026, but the system is moving back toward normal. •
— By Harry Siemens