Manitoba Pork’s Chop Talk showcases a key issue in Manitoba’s hog sector every two weeks, featuring voices who work passionately in the industry. Joey Dearborn and Rhea Teranishi host the show, and in a recent episode, they tackled a familiar and worrying topic – Country of Origin Labelling (COOL).
A long-running trade dispute between Canada and the United States is about to resurface, with potentially serious consequences for Manitoba’s hog sector. Beginning in 2026, the United States will introduce a new voluntary COOL rule requiring meat labelled “Product of USA” to come from animals born, raised, slaughtered, and processed in the United States.
While that may sound harmless, experts warn that history could repeat itself. When mandatory COOL took effect in 2009, it caused severe trade disruption. U.S. processors stopped buying Canadian pigs, exports fell sharply, and prices dropped. Canada and Mexico eventually challenged the rule at the World Trade Organization, winning a 2015 ruling that forced the U.S. to repeal the policy. Now that a “voluntary” version is returning, many wonder just how voluntary it will be.
Dr. Lynn Marchand, agricultural economist at the University of Guelph’s Ridgetown Campus, has studied the COOL issue in detail. She said that even without a mandate, the rule could pressure U.S. processors to avoid Canadian-born pigs. “The new framework may be voluntary in name, but it could still discourage U.S. plants from purchasing Canadian pigs,” Marchand said.
In 2009, exports of Canadian feeder pigs dropped 26 percent, and market hogs fell 51 percent in the first year. Marchand’s latest analysis outlines similar risks if voluntary COOL takes hold in 2026.
In the worst case scenario, all Canadian pig exports to the U.S. could stop—roughly 6.5 million pigs each year, most of them feeder pigs born in Canada and finished in U.S. barns. Manitoba, which accounted for 61 percent of feeder pig exports in 2024, would be hit the hardest. That scenario could cost Canada 202,000 sows, cut GDP by $281 million, and eliminate nearly 2,900 jobs. Even if domestic plants could process those animals, moving the extra pork would be a major challenge. Canada already exports 70 percent of its pork, and an additional supply would push prices lower.
A more moderate scenario—a 50 percent decline in exports—would still cause major harm. Marchand estimated the loss of 101,000 sows, $170 million in farm revenue, and over 1,600 jobs. “Even if plants could process those pigs here at home, the issue becomes moving that extra pork to market,” she said.
The U.S. relies heavily on Canadian pigs -about five million feeder pigs a year, representing roughly five percent of all pigs processed in the U.S. Most go to Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and South Dakota, where barns depend on this steady supply. “If those pigs stop coming, more than 800 U.S. farms could be affected,” Marchand said. “That could mean around $1 billion U.S. in lost farm income annually.”
Processors and retailers would also face higher costs tied to segregation, documentation, and labelling, which could ultimately hit consumers. “Some consumers value knowing where their meat comes from,” Marchand said, “but for most, price remains the deciding factor.”
The renewed push for COOL didn’t appear overnight. Marchand noted that three U.S. groups had lobbied for years before President Joe Biden signed an executive order directing the Department of Agriculture to tighten labelling standards. “Support for COOL cuts across both political parties,” she said. “It appeals to domestic pride and consumer transparency.”
Marchand also highlighted the differences between Canada’s Verified Canadian Pork program and U.S. regulations. “Verified Canadian Pork is an industry-led initiative,” she said. “COOL is government legislation that restricts what can carry a ‘Product of USA’ label.”
As the January 1, 2026, deadline approaches, uncertainty remains. U.S. packers will decide whether to continue accepting Canadian-born pigs or limit their purchases to animals that meet the new requirements. “Some packers may decide it’s worth the effort,” Marchand said. “Others may not.”
Canadian industry groups, including Manitoba Pork, are watching closely. They hope cooperation with U.S. partners could reduce trade tension, possibly through broader labels such as “Packaged in the U.S. using imported pork.”
Still, the stakes are high. Manitoba’s economy and farm families depend on open trade with the United States. The industry has weathered COOL once before, but with this new rule on the horizon, producers may soon find themselves navigating familiar—and costly—territory. •
— By Harry Siemens
