Despite the rhetoric from President Donald Trump, United States tariffs haven’t had the impact that was feared on Canadian hog producers.
Those words came from Brett Stuart, who spoke at the Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium on Nov. 4-5 in Saskatoon.
Stuart, who lives in Idaho, co-founded Global AgriTrends in 2006, and has travelled to six continents researching global meat and livestock markets.
He said there was a frenzy in Canada last year, as he crossed the country from Quebec to Alberta. He was asked over and over what could be expected from Trump.
“It was a fever pitch. I talked to a lot of guys that said, ‘If we get 35 per cent tariffs on piglets going south, what does that look like? I mean, we’re in big trouble.’ But if you look at everything that’s happened, reciprocal tariffs are now in place.
“(Trump’s) big plan is unrolled. He loved the rhetoric about it. But the reality is, there really isn’t much impact. Canada and Mexico are mostly tariff free under the USMCA.”
Stuart noted that the legality of tariffs went before the Supreme Court in the U.S. in early November. A decision is unlikely to come until early in 2026.
“I was talking to traders yesterday, saying what’s the tariff now on pork. What’s the tariff on beef? They said no one is sure yet, but there is something forthcoming.”
Stuart encouraged producers to “panic slowly,” adding it sounds like a terrible phrase.
“I don’t know how you do that, but the point being, don’t jump out of that window yet.
“But do (tariffs) matter? Not for agriculture because those tariffs only apply to products not covered under the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement. Eighty to 90 per cent of our trade is covered under that agreement.”
He said that is unlikely to change in the flow of meat and livestock. “If I am really honest, Trump’s bark has been worse than his bite.”
Stuart talked about the United States-Canada trade balance, and how it has tipped Canada’s way.
“We had a positive balance of trade up until 2022. We have seen our ag balance of trade plummet — $56 billion now. America is a net agriculture importer, and it’s happened over the last four years.”
Stuart said the surge of Canadian commodities have been potash, cattle and hogs. “That’s a lot of things, which has driven that balance of trade lower. For one thing, it probably shows the strength of the U.S. economy.”
He said 6.7 million hogs – mostly feeder pigs – go south every year. More than four million are under 15 pounds.
“You can see slaughter hogs – 1.5 million on track this year … that is a flow of pigs coming south.”
He said 22 per cent of Canada’s piglet crop winds up in the U.S. He said it equates to five per cent of the supply of hogs in the U.S.
“So, where are we at in North America for Canada? Your hog slaughter is up 2.7 per cent – half a million hogs. Carcass weight is about the same. Our hog slaughter in the U.S. is down two per cent. And hog price is up 10 per cent . . . that’s probably indicative of the mood in the industry.”
Where is Canadian pork going?
“You’re on track to have record exports this year. It’s Japan – Canadian shipments to Japan are up 23 per cent. Japan is on track, maybe for the first time, to be in the largest export market.”
Stuart said he remembers when Canada shipped a lot of pork to Russia and China.
“Then, the U.S. is typically your biggest market. Now Japan is your biggest market. You have to give credit to your packers, your exporters. They are very good; they are very aggressive.
“Japan’s not an easy market. It requires very tight specifications on everything. They’re very particular about everything.”
The United States has lost 17 per cent of the Japanese market. He said the country to watch in terms of selling pork to Japan is Brazil, going from no sales to nine per cent in five years.
Stuart said Canada now has 59 per cent of chilled pork sales in Japan.
The world has changed in terms of the hog market.
·Canada doubled its pork market share in South Korea over the last eight years.
·South Korea lifted the ban on German pork exports in June 2023. ASF and hoof-and-mouth hammered the industry.
·Fifty per cent of Mexican pork is imported. Eighty per cent from the U.S. Canada and Brazil are increasing their share.
·Brazil is the biggest meat exporter in the world. “When your currency drops 70 per cent, you can export anything, anywhere.”
·China’s hog sector has been unprofitable for four years. ASF affects 20 to 30 per cent of farms.
·EU hog prices are down eight per cent year over year; pork production forecast to decline due to sustainability, climate, and welfare policies.
·ASF reported in 51 countries (Jan. 2024 to May 2025). Disease issues (ASF, PRRS, screwworm) continue to impact production globally.
During his presentation, Stuart put a chart on the screen which showed green and blue lines.
“When the green line is below the blue line, that is when you are holding your breath. We’ve come through a tough couple of years.”
When the green line passed the blue line, “We are set to make money all the way through the next 12 months.”
“What happens when hog farmers make money? They breed more sows, right? So the question is, what about expansion. We make money, we make too many hogs, and when we don’t make money, we slow down hogs.
“So, are we really going to expand? In the U.S., we are not hearing of any new barns going in. I don’t think there are any empty barns. I think people are using the space they have. I don’t see any appetite for big expansion this year in production.”
In conclusion, he emphasized a previous comment — “profitability looks good for both Canada and United States (for the next) year.”•
— By Cam Hutchinson