Crop profitability connects with more than just yields and costs. Hog producers follow markets daily, weighing history, currency shifts, exports, and seasonal patterns before locking in contracts. The latest insights from Paul Marchand at H@ms Marketing on September 17, 18, and 19 point to record cash values, cautious outlooks, and a steady reminder that while projections rarely prove exact, seasonality remains one of the strongest forces shaping fall prices.
On Friday, September 19, the National cash base price set a record high for marketing week 38. That milestone alone tempts producers to assume where the market may head. Marchand warned against seeing this as a forecast. Forecasts often fail, he said, and provide little value when wrong. Instead, history tells the clearer story. Looking back at how prices typically shift between week 38 and the December contract expiration in week 50 offers perspective.
The data shows that from 2021 through 2023, prices dropped into December by 19 percent, 15 percent, and 19 percent, respectively. Even in 2014, when prices surged during PEDv, the average drop into December still landed at 14 percent, demonstrating that the seasonal pull lower persists even when fundamentals appear strong. Only 2024 broke the trend with just a 1 percent decline, and that year never built a summer rally, while a counter-seasonal push in November narrowed spreads.
With today’s $103.27 USD/cwt base price and a 73-cent Canadian dollar, applying historical averages gives a wide but sobering range. A four-year average move lower drops December to $88.82 USD/cwt or $215.96 CAD/ckg. Removing 2024 and focusing only on 2021–2023 pushes the projected December base closer to $84.68 USD/cwt or $205.91 CAD/ckg. Marchand stressed again—this is not a projection, only a way to frame decisions using historical averages. Forward contracts for December now average $209.61 CAD/ckg, with week 50 sitting at $211.59 CAD/ckg, numbers that align well with the best recent years.
On Thursday, September 18, attention shifted to macroeconomics. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Chairman Powell called it a “risk management” move, leaving the door open for further cuts depending on incoming data. The USD slipped then quickly recovered, while the Canadian dollar mainly held steady.
As expected, lean hog futures did not move directly in response to the announcement.
Deferred futures leaned lower in recent sessions, but only modestly. Export demand metrics looked softer than a year ago, with the cutout showing early signs of weakening. Still, values remain the strongest in any post-2020 marketing week 38 environment, which continues to support the cash market. Marchand pointed to the National cash base again, clearing $103 USD/cwt for a fourth straight week. By comparison, last year during this period, cash dropped more than $3.00 USD/cwt, and the three-year average shows a $5.00 pullback. This year runs counter to those norms, with cumulative values now 21.8 percent above last year.

Export sales told a mixed story. Deliveries of U.S. pork in marketing week 37 rose 25.8 percent compared to the prior week, yet the 29,396 MT volume still put cumulative sales 6.5 percent below last year. New net sales at 21,992 MT picked up from the week before but still fell behind last year’s pace. The supply side continues to do the heavy lifting in 2025, Marchand said, not an export-driven boom.
On Wednesday, September 17, the markets looked ahead to the Federal Reserve decision. President Trump pressured Chairman Powell to cut rates, though legally he cannot fire Powell or force the Board’s hand. Analysts widely expected the 25-basis-point cut, citing stubbornly high inflation and weak jobs data. Inflation ran 2.9 percent in August, above the 2 percent mandate. Poor employment numbers tipped the balance toward action.
For hog producers, the interest rate debate may feel distant, but currency volatility ties directly into forward contract prices. The Canadian dollar rose about 0.4 cents the day before the announcement, pulling Canadian forward contracts lower by nearly $2.00 CAD/ckg. Marchand reminded producers that every one-cent move in the CAD equals roughly $2.80 CAD/ckg in contracts. Currency swings, he said, matter as much as underlying hog market fundamentals when pricing pigs in Canadian dollars.
Taken together, the three updates frame a hog market on edge. Record cash prices in September mark a strong base, but seasonality warns of pressure into December. Currency shifts remain a constant variable, while export demand lags behind last year’s levels. The supply side still provides support, keeping values historically strong.
Producers face decisions daily. Locking in today secures record levels. Waiting opens the door to stronger fourth-quarter rallies, but risks seasonal erosion. Marchand’s message stays consistent: history shapes expectations, not projections. The fall will test once again how strong that seasonal pull proves, and whether 2025 aligns with averages or charts its own course. •
— By Harry Siemens