A senior risk management analyst with H@ms Marketing Services warns Canadian hog producers could take a hit if U.S. trading partners retaliate against Washington’s new tariffs. The United States raised its general import tariff on Canadian goods not covered under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement from 25 to 35 percent effective August 7, with additional tariffs also applied to other trading partners.
Paul Marchand says Canadian hog prices will drop if other countries hit back with tariffs on U.S. pork because Canadian prices are tied directly to U.S. markets. He says that for now, producers have some protection. “Once again, we’re fairly fortunate that the new levies apply to goods not covered under the USMCA or CUSMA as we know it in Canada. The North American pork industry should remain fairly resilient with few changes on that front. Of course, there will be some supply and demand chain disruptions if these tariffs last for any length of time, and we’re going to be watching that closely to find out if there’s any policy lag or follow-through.”
Marchand says Canadian producers are more concerned about retaliation against U.S. pork than the tariffs themselves. He notes that because of the way prices get set in Canada, retaliation against U.S. pork would immediately filter through to Canadian producers.

So far, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade deal has shielded North American producers from major damage. Mexico, the number one export market for U.S. pork, has made threats of retaliation but has not taken action.
The risk, he explains, comes if countries view the U.S. as an unreliable supplier and move away from American pork. Both American and Canadian hog prices would face downward pressure if that happens. Brazil already overtook the U.S. as the top pork supplier to the Philippines, which Marchand says highlights how quickly markets can shift. He also points to China, where the effective tariff rate on U.S. pork is now about 47 percent. Before this new round of tariffs, the U.S. was already at a 25 percent disadvantage. “Fortunately, recent export reports show trade with China has somewhat normalized despite the higher tariffs,” he said. “But the concern remains if other nations choose to walk away from U.S. pork.”
Marchand stresses that Canada must be careful in how it responds. He recalls when Canada retaliated against U.S. tariffs during the Trump administration by targeting politically sensitive goods, including pork. “That was unfortunately the wrong move,” he said. “If Canadian officials only consider matching tariffs, that could backfire. Canada is the number five supplier of pork to the U.S. If we retaliate directly, we risk pushing U.S. hogs back into their own market, depressing prices and hurting Canadian producers.”
He also warns that tariffs eventually hit consumers. “Tariffs in general on import goods going into the U.S. will be inflationary for the American consumer at some point,” he said. “It may not be immediate, but the longer these disputes last, the more likely inflationary impacts take hold. That could slow economic activity and consumer spending, which places downward pressure on live hog prices.”
Despite these risks, Marchand sees reason for some optimism. The CUSMA agreement currently protects the North American pork market. But he warns that this protection could fade in 2026 when the agreement comes up for review. “For now, producers can take some comfort,” he said. “But once the deal opens, Canadian pork could again be on the table as a target for tariffs. Officials need to understand how the pricing mechanism works here before considering retaliation.”
He says producers should watch closely whether Mexico follows through on threats of retaliation, whether other nations shift away from U.S. pork to alternative suppliers like Brazil, how inflation affects U.S. consumer demand, and the tone of trade talks as CUSMA’s review approaches.
“The big question is whether retaliatory tariffs actually become policy,” Marchand said. “Until that happens, we’re only dealing with threats. But if they do, then economic implications will filter through supply chains and consumer behaviour. That’s when both U.S. and Canadian hog prices will feel real pressure.”
For now, he says, U.S. tariffs have not yet derailed the pork sector, but Canadian producers need to stay alert. “The risks themselves don’t seem to last too long, even if tariffs are applied. But August 7 marked a new chapter in tariff escalation. We’ll have to watch very closely how countries respond and how the markets react in the short term.” •
— By Harry Siemens