Florian Possberg, a partner with Polar Pork, says the pork industry can withstand global tariff pressures and ongoing uncertainty in international trade.
“When the tariff talk started in March, we thought Canadian pork and Mexican trade with the U.S. would face big disruptions,” said Possberg.
“We saw one delay, then another, and in the end, not much really changed in the pork or meat trade. That’s positive.”
Possberg says there’s still a chance of surprises, “but so far so good.”
He says U.S.-China tensions brought heavy tariffs, but a 90-day agreement recently eased the pressure. Still, Canada remains at a disadvantage.
“Canada still faces a 25 percent tariff from China because of our tariffs on steel, aluminum, and electric vehicles. That’s a problem.”
Even so, Possberg emphasizes how crucial continued Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade remains. “Tons of product cross borders daily. It’s vital to our industry.”
He observes a recent drop in trade tonnage, mainly due to uncertainty.
“I hope we see that normalized now. There’s more confidence in the U.S. economy, and they’re big consumers,” he said. “Pork demand in Canada is down a bit, but high beef and poultry prices give us a chance to sell more here, too.”
In China, he says exports have slowed, but adds, “It’s a big relief that North American trade looks stable.”
Possberg says lobbying played a strong role in keeping trade channels open.
“Our producer groups lobbied hard with the Americans, and Mexico likely did the same. Americans trade with us because it’s good business. Their buyers and traders lobbied too.”
“We must restore confidence in the pork trade. It’s good for everyone—north and south of the border.”
Turning to politics, he says the recent Canadian election brings some needed calm.
“We now have a prime minister with a strong minority. That political stability helps. The first meeting between our PM and the U.S. President went well.”
He anticipates difficult talks ahead: “They’ll have tough discussions around trade—everything from lumber to computers.”
“One concern is the Americans pushing on supply management. Our politicians may call that non-negotiable, but the U.S. might not. We don’t know how that plays out. It could affect ag trade during the new agreement talks.”
Possberg explains how China’s role has shifted.
China used to be our second-largest pork export market when it had ASF. Now, they’ve rebuilt production and dropped in importance.”
But China remains key for carcass value. “They still buy the offal, which includes the livers, feet, tongues—that we don’t eat here. That adds value.”
“With a 25 percent tariff on Canadian pork, it’s tough. The U.S. only faces 10 percent, so their product moves, setting our hog price.”
Possberg says Canadian producers still need clarity.
“Uncertainty hurts confidence and long-term planning. Tariffs shook that.”
“Still, hog prices stayed reasonable. Good producers made a profit.”
He notes that strength in other sectors helps: “Beef prices are near record highs. The whole meat industry does well right now.”
He says real investment won’t return without stability.
“We build barns to last 20–25 years. Some built in the late ’90s still run strong today. Stability builds confidence to reinvest.”
“We take it one day at a time. A lot has come at us,” Possberg added. “Hopefully, by fall, things will clear up and the economic outlook will turn positive.” •
— By Harry Siemens