As Canada prepares for the potential economic shock of a 35 percent U.S. tariff on Canadian goods, Manitoba’s pork industry finds itself caught in the middle of a growing trade storm. U.S. President Donald Trump’s July announcement that a sweeping new tariff will take effect on August 1, has sent ripples of uncertainty through the Canadian agri-food sector – especially in Manitoba, where pork and isowean exports are a cornerstone of the provincial economy.
Cam Dahl, General Manager of Manitoba Pork, says the impact of this tariff depends entirely on whether current trade exemptions under the Canada – United States – Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) remain in place.
“Right now, products that are CUSMA compliant are exempt from Trump’s tariffs,” Dahl explains. “This exemption applies to Manitoba’s pork and isowean exports. If the threatened 35 percent tariffs come into effect but the CUSMA exemptions continue, the impacts will be manageable.”
But that’s a big “if.”
“If the CUSMA exemptions do not apply to the new tariffs,” Dahl warns, “the impacts will be devastating – especially for isowean exporters.”
Manitoba is one of Canada’s leading exporters of isoweans – young pigs shipped to U.S. farms for finishing. These exports represent not only a major economic driver but also a key piece of the integrated North American pork value chain. Any disruption at the border could send shock-waves across both Canadian and U.S. pork sectors.
The July 17 letter from President Trump to Prime Minister Mark Carney cites multiple reasons for the proposed tariffs: Canada’s alleged failure to curb fentanyl shipments entering the U.S.; retaliatory Canadian tariffs from past disputes; high Canadian tariffs on U.S. dairy exports; and what Trump claims is a long-standing, unsustainable U.S. trade deficit with Canada. He goes so far as to frame the deficit as a matter of national security.
Dahl notes that while media reports have suggested that CUSMA exemptions will remain in place, “this letter does not provide that assurance.”
The uncertainty is fuelling anxiety across the sector. While Prime Minister Carney responded promptly with a statement affirming his government’s commitment to work toward an agreement before the August 1 deadline, no concrete solution has emerged.
“In the meantime,” says Dahl, “Manitoba Pork is closely monitoring this issue and engaging with our partners. We will provide updates as they become available.”
The pork industry isn’t the only sector at risk. The threat of a 35 percent blanket tariff – particularly if CUSMA exemptions get revoked – could quickly escalate into a full-blown trade crisis, echoing the turbulent days of earlier Canada – U.S. disputes. But for pork producers, the consequences could be uniquely severe, given the perishable nature of their product and the integrated nature of livestock markets across the border.
“If we lose access to the U.S. market,” Dahl explains, “we don’t just lose sales – we risk undermining the entire economic structure that underpins pork production in Manitoba.”
The concern over isowean exports is especially acute. These young pigs typically go to U.S. farms shortly after weaning. Any sudden tariffs could effectively block that pipeline, forcing Manitoba producers to find alternative markets quickly or face severe financial losses.
For now, Manitoba Pork continues to hope that CUSMA exemptions will remain in place. However, the uncertainty serves as a stark reminder of just how vulnerable Canada’s agricultural sector can be to political decisions made beyond its borders.
Dahl concludes with a note of caution: “Until we have written confirmation that pork remains exempt, we have to prepare for the worst – and hope for the best.”
With just weeks to go before the August 1 deadline, pork producers across the province are watching and waiting. The next move, it seems, belongs to Ottawa—and Washington. •
— By Harry Siemens