Paul Marchand, Senior Risk Management Analyst with H@ms Marketing Services, says Canada’s pork producers aren’t facing direct tariff impacts yet. Still, the biggest risk remains if U.S. pork becomes a target of foreign retaliation.
“We’re not seeing any tariffs on pork under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade deal,” said Marchand. “That’s the shield holding so far. But if another country retaliates against the U.S. with tariffs on pork, that hits us too.”
Canadian hog prices tie closely to U.S. market prices. “We get our pricing from the USDA and U.S. futures markets,” he says. “So if pork backs up in the U.S. and prices drop, that pressure flows into our system—even if we’re not directly involved in the dispute.”
While Canadian producers don’t export much pork themselves, domestic processors and packers do. “They have exposure to the U.S. market,” Marchand said. “If they take a hit, it affects how much they pay producers here.”
Marchand points to China’s 145 percent tariff on U.S. pork during a past trade spat as an example of real damage. “U.S. pork exports to China dropped from 35,000 metric tons a month to just 6,700 in May,” he said. “China used to be a top-five buyer – then they slid to the bottom of the list.”
That dramatic drop opened the door for new players, such as Colombia, which imported more than 12,600 metric tons that month. “Colombia passed China in volume,” said Marchand. “That shows how fast a market can shift when tariffs hit.”
Despite the impact, Marchand says U.S. exports have started to recover. “Forward-looking pork orders to China are picking up again,” he said. “There’s always a lag in the data, but the signs of recovery are there.”
Still, Marchand believes the bigger threat lies with Mexico. “Mexico takes about 40 percent of U.S. pork exports,” he said. “If they retaliate with tariffs, that’s when things get serious.”
Mexico, so far, has handled the pressure calmly. “They’ve said, if something happens, they’ll respond then,” said Marchand. “That’s smart. Less drama. More strategy. Our government could learn from that.”
He cautions Canada against retaliating against the U.S. with pork tariffs. “That hurts our producers,” he said.

“We export too much pork to disrupt the North American trade balance.,” Marchand added.
His advice to Ottawa? “Do not tariff U.S. pork. Period. That only causes demand destruction and backs up product – here and in the U.S.”
Even recent live hog shipments from Ontario into U.S. plants or western Canadian plants haven’t affected Manitoba prices. “That’s more about plant closures in Quebec,” Marchand says. “It’s a logistics issue, not a pricing one. Prices here still depend on U.S. fundamentals.”
On how the federal government is managing the trade tensions, Marchand urges a quieter approach. “Too much of this battle plays out in public, especially on social media,” he said. “Markets need policy, not posturing.”
He adds, “Let the trade professionals do their jobs. Less noise. More certainty.”
So far, the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) has protected the pork industry. But with renegotiations set for 2026, Marchand expects more tariff threats in the years ahead. “That seems to be the new strategy – threaten tariffs to push people to the table,” he said.
Even with regular threats, pork markets haven’t reacted dramatically. “Lean hog futures mostly stay flat when threats pop up,” Marchand said. “The market waits for real action. Not just talk.”
He remains cautiously optimistic. “Demand stays strong, supplies are tighter than last year, and prices are historically high,” he said. “So far, no major trade disruptions have hit Canadian pork.”
Looking ahead, Marchand sees a clear path. “Keep markets open. Avoid self-inflicted wounds. And prepare for more negotiating tactics.”
And if policymakers want to protect Canadian hog producers? “Give us stable rules. Don’t start tariff fights. That’s the best support you can offer.” •
— By Harry Siemens