Reality Check for the 2025
Harvest Season
We’ve got some fundamental uncertainties ahead – alongside a few firm realities – in farming, food production, and agriculture. After talking with several farmers, it’s clear that crop development is uneven. Moisture levels, or the lack of them, continue to shape the growing season. In some regions, crops look decent. In others, they look better. But in many places across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta, conditions aren’t as favourable.
Walter Smith, a grain farmer from Pilot Mound, MB shared a sobering point. “If I only get 55 to 60 bushels an acre on wheat, I’ll be in the red,” he said. “I need 75 to 80 bushels an acre just to break even.” That’s the harsh math facing many growers this year.
I also checked in with Jonathan Drieger of Left Field Commodity Research. I’ve talked with Jonathan many times over the years. He confirmed the wide variation in moisture conditions and urged caution on grain marketing. “Farmers shouldn’t be too quick to pull the trigger,” he said. “If possible, avoid selling during harvest – it’s usually the low point for prices.”
Walter and Jonathan echoed the same concern: with rising input costs, the margin for error is razor thin. Many producers rely on harvest sales to cover their bills. Drieger encourages those with storage to use it. “Storing grain gives you time to wait and see. Each operation is different, but flexibility helps,” he said.
Layered on top of this are trade uncertainties. On August 1, the U.S. is planning to impose tariffs of up to 35 percent. While the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement currently exempts our sector, the threat alone creates concern. Meanwhile, Canada still faces 100 percent tariffs on canola oil and canola meal exports to China. There’s talk of Australia cutting a deal to resume shipping canola to China. If that happens, we’ll be watching closely to see what it means for Canadian producers.
The truth is, we don’t yet know what kind of harvest we’ll get. Will it be enough? Will it be below expectations? Will it be more than the market needs? Until we know, we can’t answer whether 2025 will be profitable or painful.
This isn’t about fear-mongering. Over my 53 years in this business, I’ve always stood with farmers. I’ve cheered when there’s reason to cheer, and I’ve been realistic when times get tough. Today, I choose realism.
As I drive across Manitoba and beyond, I see a mix. Some crops look strong. Others are struggling. Cattle markets are strong, too, but input costs for feed and land are climbing. Tom Teichroeb, a cattle producer near Langruth, told me, “Farming isn’t luck. You’ve got to know your numbers and steer your operation wisely.”
That mindset applies across the board. Whether you raise crops, cattle or hogs, you must understand your costs. Decisions – especially selling decisions – get easier when you know your break – even point.
I recall the inflation-driven interest rate spikes of the 1980s and 1990s. Many farmers faced similar challenges. One farmer told me my comments back then hit home. He had pushed his credit lines without fully understanding his numbers. It didn’t end well.
So, here we are in 2025. Another year. Another harvest. Another test of resilience. I hope this year goes well for you. But if it doesn’t, don’t just hope things will fix themselves. Check your numbers. Understand your position. Know your limits.
Farmers don’t need pity – they need perspective. Let’s ensure to prepare for what’s next, whatever it may turn out to be. •