At the recent h@ms Marketing producer meeting in Oakville, MB, Paul Marchand, senior risk management analyst with h@ms said one question kept coming up during his hog producer presentations in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba—and it surprises him every time. “I thought it was something everyone knew. But people still ask why we focus so much on the U.S.”
Marchand explained clearly, “The base price for hogs in Western Canada happens in the United States. That’s where we start.”
The U.S. market drives the fundamentals no matter what happens locally. “Even if Trump slapped a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian pork tomorrow, it wouldn’t immediately change the price of a market hog going to a Canadian plant,” he said. “But it would hit weanling producers, sow exports, and live hogs heading south.”
That’s why keeping a close eye on U.S. supply and demand is essential.
Marchand said the slaughter numbers are pretty steady. “We’re number five on the list, but we’re only one per cent lower than a year ago,” he says. That’s not a big drop.”
Despite talk of PRRS and PED outbreaks in the Midwest, he hasn’t seen those health issues show up in the slaughter data, at least not yet. “Unless we get hit with something major like ASF, a serious PRRS wave, or a border shutdown, I don’t see a hog shortage coming.”
He cautioned producers not to assume missing pigs are hiding in the numbers. “One per cent year over year doesn’t equal a shortage,” he adds. “Let’s not build false optimism on something just not there.”
Marchand explained why USDA data often faces criticism, pointing to how early estimates can sometimes appear out of sync with actual slaughter numbers. “At the start of the year, the Hogs and Pigs Report looked pretty close—just a couple of per cent off from the year before. But current slaughter levels don’t match, throwing people off.”
He said the applied slaughter level uses last year’s numbers and then adjusts based on USDA estimates. “Last year, a weather event delayed a lot of slaughter in the U.S., so packers ramped up later to catch up. When you chart that, it looks like a gap early in the year, but the numbers catch up.”

Marchand cautioned producers not to jump to conclusions about the USDA’s accuracy. “Sometimes it’s just how the data settles out after adjustments,” he says. “It’s not that they don’t know what they’re doing.”
He added that some of the current slaughter numbers look slightly bearish, mainly because the industry is returning to pre-2020 monthly levels. “I think the major liquidation phase is done for now—including that 200-barn Smithfield selloff we saw last year.”
He also links some of the shifts to Proposition 12 in the U.S., noting the industry is now repositioning and adjusting to the new market conditions. “We’re at about the fourth-lowest slaughter levels in recent memory. And farrowing numbers have been down since 2019, following COVID-related plant shutdowns.”
Marchand pointed to major shifts in farrowing trends over the past few years, especially during the spring of 2020 when COVID-19 plant shutdowns were at their peak. “There were massive movements in the number of sows farrowing month to month back then. And the trend has been steadily lower ever since.” He sees that as generally supportive of the market. Fewer animals farrowing means, in theory, fewer pigs coming to market.
However, Marchand noted that efficiency gains are offsetting part of that reduction. “Over the years, we’ve seen productivity improvements, and those gains are making up for some of the drop in sow numbers.”
During the height of the pandemic, those efficiency levels dipped well below trend, but he confirms that the sector has bounced back. The industry has fully recovered from the production disruptions of 2020.
Marchand wrapped up his insights by raising two key questions: Is this the new normal and sustainable? A recent uptick in pigs per litter, now averaging close to 12, is a record-high trend still climbing.
“We haven’t hit the ceiling yet, but it’s too early to call it a clear, lasting trend.”
He said the upcoming Hogs and Pigs Report on March 27 is a key marker to watch for further direction.
Another emerging development involves producer versus packer hog weights. Historically, packers have produced heavier hogs, but independent producers are now leading in average weights for the first time in recent years. That’s new. Producer weights are the heaviest they’ve been since at least 2020, maybe ever.
He explains that with independent producers accounting for 55 per cent of U.S. production, this shift could have broader market implications, as it offsets some of the drop in farrowing numbers. •
— By Harry Siemens